Will the bear run really calm down once and for all? – Many investors like you and me are wondering if the way of the cross of Bitcoin (BTC) since its last ATH in November 2021 will begin to stabilize. A pious wish, but which would also be logical given the extent of the decline since its last failure below the resistance of $46,000.
Although the latest technical analyzes tend towards a depressing spiral, shouldn’t we be inspired by a famous stock market saying, the very one that advises against trying to “catch a falling knife”. Admittedly, the maneuver would be frankly daring in relation to the current context. But the possible scenario of a technical rebound could arise when no one expects it anymore.
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Bitcoin in weekly units – $20,000 support still relevant
If there’s one thing crypto investors can cling to, this is the current hold of the $20,000 support. Even though Bitcoin is trading slightly below this capital level, it seems that the sellers have been marking time since last week. Firstly, the gap between prices and the Tenkan would be large enough to potentially witness the beginnings of a loss of downward pressure. And on the other hand, the mission is accomplished when it comes to the end goal of the shoulder-head-shoulder (ETE).
Nevertheless, I remain very reserved about the idea of going beyond a technical rebound. The resistance of $30,000 alone would already constitute a first major obstacle against a favorable trend reversal. And as if that weren’t enough, BTC’s price position against the Ichimoku curves wouldn’t inspire us to dream better. Hence the danger of catching a falling knife.
With BTC prices and a Chikou Span significantly below the Kumo (cloud) in weekly units, the fear of a long air pocket would seriously begin to loom. Especially since the change of course of the future Kumo (blue dot) would suggest that the current bear run would ironically have good days ahead.
Bitcoin in daily units – The $12,000 now or later
Last week, I had imagined Bitcoin prices touching the resistance at $26,000. But in the end, the last rebound attempt did not bring the expected result. From where the possibility of seeing the king of cryptos once again threaten the support of $20,000. This was the case during the session the day before yesterday before returning to contact with this level so essential in the eyes of cryptocurrency investors.
Also, I wouldn’t get too wet considering that Microstrategy is keeping a close eye on the price development of BTC in the coming days/weeks. Because if the slide towards $12,000 were to take shape, the American company would have serious problems on its margin calls. As a result, the possible rout of one of the influential members could cause a chain fragmentation of many players in the cryptocurrency industry. And as far as the graphics are concerned, this would simply neutralize the last bull run. While many of us never imagined taking such a big step back.
On the other hand, if the support at $20,000 manages to resist, we would resume the scenario mentioned last week. With, as a bonus, prices that would cross the Tenkan and be in contact with the Tenkan very close to the resistance of $26,000 in daily units. And in order to scare away untrained sellers, the break up of the last two would lead us towards the resistance of $30,000.
In summary, the stabilization of Bitcoin’s current bear run does not seem to be on the agenda as we speak, despite the strong support at $20,000. You will have to take your troubles patiently to catch up with this knife which falls as part of a better technical rebound. This will go through catalysts that would have the ability to calm the ardor of sellers, and above all to appease the current uncertainties on the financial markets.
It is clear that we are far from this outcome. Until a favorable technical pattern appears at least on the daily chart, it would appear that one of the famous stock market sayings is on track to remain valid. In which case, the bear run of the king of cryptos will always be at the center of the discussions, until when?
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